Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 128(10), pp. 3618-3630, October 2000
Abstract
We present a dynamically-motivated statistical forecasting scheme for
eastern Mediterranean winter rainfall based on North Atlantic
sea-level pressure precursors. The resulting forecasts are robust and
statistically significant at approximately 13-months lead time, and
improve at 7 months lead. We suggest that these forecasts form a
foundation for an operational early-warning system for eastern
Mediterranean droughts.